At 6:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, the NCAA Tournament selection committee had its second and final top 16 reveal of the year.
These reveals provide valuable insights into how the committee views the nation’s best teams. In a hectic season, the top 16 reveal represents clarity.
So, naturally, four of the top 12 teams lost by the end of the night.
One of the biggest surprises from the reveal was South Carolina falling to a No. 2 seed as the fifth-ranked team overall.
The Gamecocks have been a No. 1 seed in four straight NCAA Tournaments and eight of the last 10. They entered Thursday tied with Texas for the most Quad-1 wins in the country (11), but clearly the margin of their defeat against UConn was a major data point, as Dawn Staley’s team was dropped below both USC and Notre Dame.
However, after Notre Dame fell at home to Florida State, it’s likely South Carolina is back on the No. 1 line. USC should be equally delighted to put a bit of room between themselves and the Irish, who won their head-to-head meeting earlier in the season.
With only UCLA and Texas appearing to be safely No. 1 seeds, perhaps UConn has a fighting chance at one of those remaining two spots after all. It’s worth mentioning they came in at No. 6 overall in the reveal, ahead of LSU even before the Tigers’ overtime loss at Alabama.
UConn would certainly have to win the Big East Tournament, and even then it seems unlikely. But if UCLA and Texas win their respective conference tournaments, that means guaranteed losses for USC and South Carolina that could make things interesting.
It’s also notable Notre Dame faces a tough challenge against Louisville in their regular-season finale and will likely enter the ACC Tournament as the league’s No. 2 seed behind NC State.
Oh, would you look at the date — we’re just hours away from March! Each of the power conferences end regular season play this weekend, meaning we’re officially in the final push to Selection Sunday.
Want a No. 1 seed? Looking to host? Just trying to guarantee a spot in the field. The time is now, my friends. The ball’s in your court.
No. 1 seeds
UCLA (27-1, 16-1 Big Ten): NET 5, SOS 15
UCLA should be just about guaranteed a No. 1 seed at this point, but the Bruins have a chance to make it official and get revenge on their rival USC on Saturday.
The Bruins have won 10 straight home games against ranked teams dating back to 2023, including a 15-point win over South Carolina this past November. The mission will be simple: stop JuJu Watkins from having another all-time performance.
*Texas (28-2, 14-1 SEC): NET 3, SOS 3
There are only two power conference teams in the country with an active winning streak of more than six games, and both hail from the Lone Star State. Baylor has won nine straight, while Texas has won 12 in a row.
Ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll for the first time since 2004, the Longhorns can lock up their second consecutive NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed on Sunday with a home win against a sub-.500 Florida team.
*USC (25-2, 16-1 Big Ten): NET 6, SOS 11
Just four teams in the country have at least nine Quad-1 wins this season, and they’re all No. 1 seeds in these projections. In fact, no other team has more than six.
That would suggest the No. 1 seeds are fairly definitive, but the committee has shown us that isn’t the case. USC would remain a No. 1 seed with a loss against UCLA, but there would be a lot more pressure on the Trojans in the Big Ten Tournament.
South Carolina (26-3, 14-1 SEC): NET 2, SOS 1
One could still reasonably argue South Carolina has the best overall resume in the nation. Yes, the Gamecocks have three losses. But they also have a ridiculous nine wins against teams in the top 20 of the NET rankings. UCLA, for example, has three.
South Carolina’s No. 1 seed hopes may still come down to winning the SEC Tournament, making it even crazier the top seed in that event might come down to a literal coin flip with Texas.
No. 2 seeds
Notre Dame (24-4, 15-2 ACC): NET 4, SOS 6
Last season, Notre Dame had an insane run up to Selection Sunday, winning five straight games against AP Top 25 teams from Leap Day through the ACC Tournament. Can the Irish rebound from back-to-back losses to have a similar run this time around?
The path starts against Louisville, a team Notre Dame has won three straight against, including an 18-point win on Feb. 2 when Hannah Hidalgo led the way with 34 points.
*UConn (27-3, 17-0 Big East): NET 1, SOS 38
The Huskies clinched a 12th straight outright conference regular-season title on Thursday with a 72-53 win over Creighton, their closest Big East competition.
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UConn is 17-0 in Big East play, winning those games by an average of 34.1 points per game. At home, they’ve combined to beat eight opponents by 317 points across 320 minutes of game action. Marquette needs a win at UConn on Sunday to stay in the at-large conversation. Good luck.
LSU (27-3, 12-3 SEC): NET 10, SOS 36
Flau’jae Johnson scored just six points on 2 of 12 shooting in LSU’s overtime loss at Alabama, her fewest in a game since December 2023. She showed leadership on X by taking responsibility for the loss, but LSU’s free throw shooting was just as costly.
In the fourth quarter and overtime, the Tigers shot just 5 of 11 from the line. Still, there’s no shame in losing to Alabama, and LSU remains firmly a No. 2 seed.
*NC State (23-5, 15-2 ACC): NET 19, SOS 13
With just three games left on the ACC schedule, NC State was two games out of first place in the conference. They halved the deficit in a game-of-the-year contender, beating then-No. 1 Notre Dame at home in double overtime.
Now, following another win plus an Irish loss against Florida State, the Wolfpack just need to beat bottom-dweller SMU for the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament. Along with 2021-22, this would be NC State’s second regular-season title in the last 35 seasons.