A little over two weeks ago, USC handed then-No. 1 ranked UCLA its first defeat of the season thanks almost entirely to a historic performance from JuJu Watkins. The star sophomore went off for 38 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and eight blocks to become the first Division I player in the last 20 years to have a 35-point, five-assist, five-block game.
On Saturday (9 p.m. ET, streaming on fubo), the now-No. 2 Bruins and No. 4 Trojans will meet for a rematch at Pauley Pavilion with the Big Ten regular season title, and potentially a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, on the line. Both teams are 16-1 in conference play and will be eager to earn a trophy in their first season in this re-shaped conference.
As UCLA looks for a measure of revenge at home, their primary focus will be slowing down Watkins. That’s easier said than done against a player with her level of talent, but it’s not impossible. Ahead of Saturday, let’s take a closer look at the first matchup between these teams and what the Bruins might be able to do better.
Protecting the paint
Perhaps the biggest key when defending Watkins is keeping her out of the paint. With her size and touch around the basket, it’s pretty much game over once she gets inside. For the season, the 6-foot-2 Watkins is shooting an incredible 75.8% at the rim, which ranks in the 95th percentile in the country. She’s also drawn 191 personal fouls, which is sixth among all Division I players.
To their credit, the Bruins actually did a good job on that front in the first meeting. Their perimeter defenders were physical and moved their feet, and the 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts was a major deterrent. Only six of Watkins’ 26 field goal attempts came in the paint, and of those only three were at the rim, per CBB Analytics. And while she did get to the line for 10 free throws, that was mostly the result of the Bruins fouling her on jump shots.
If there’s a weakness for Watkins right now, it’s her jumpshooting, which can be extremely streaky. She’s shooting 33.7% from behind the arc this season, a decent mark, but one that’s been buoyed by two huge games — a 9-of-10 effort against Cal Baptist and the first matchup against UCLA, when she went 6 of 9. In her other 25 appearances, Watkins is at 28% from downtown. On mid-range attempts, Watkins hasn’t been much better this season at 35%.
Walling off the paint and turning Watkins into a shooter is the scouting report, and the Bruins followed it well back on Feb. 13. It just didn’t matter. Watkins made tough shot after tough shot, particularly in the first half.
If UCLA can force Watkins into these same type of jumpers on Saturday, the percentages would say Watkins won’t be as successful.
Limiting transition opportunities
Watkins is a wizard in transition, which is where she’s gotten just under a third of her offensive possessions. On such opportunities, she’s scoring 1.112 points per possession and shooting 53.7%. She’s too big, too athletic and too smart to slow down in the open court.
Because of the Trojans’ poor overall outside shooting — 32.8% as a team, which ranks 120th in the country — there’s often little space for Watkins to operate in the halfcourt. But when they can get out and run, they are electric.
For the first three quarters of the first matchup, the Bruins had done a solid job limiting the Trojans’ transition opportunities. That all changed in the fourth quarter, however, which is how Watkins and Co. broke the game open. Watkins either scored or assisted on four fast-break baskets in the fourth quarter, which led the nine points — more than the Bruins scored as a whole in the final frame.
If UCLA can keep this game in the halfcourt by limiting live ball turnovers and having good floor balance on offense, they have the defensive personnel to make life difficult for Watkins and USC.
Forcing the ball out of her hands
One of the more interesting aspects of UCLA’s defensive game plan a few weeks ago was that they trusted their perimeter defenders to guard Watkins one-on-one. They showed plenty of help, and Betts was always waiting under the basket, but they didn’t trap Watkins to make her give it up, as we’ve seen some other teams do this season.
To be fair, the Bruins have a number of strong defenders and they were doing a solid job defending Watkins. But sometimes, the only way to prevent the truly elite, big-game players from scoring is to take the ball out of their hands.
Back on Feb. 13, Watkins had 12 of the Trojans’ 21 field goals, and the rest of the team was 9 of 37 from the field. If Watkins starts feeling it again on Saturday, it will be interesting to see if the Bruins try to make someone else beat them.